According to new research, Bitcoin’s collapse to $25,000 or below is unlikely due to hodlers searching for all-time highs rather than speculative traders.
Popular analyst “Root” stated in a series of tweets on April 19 that there is “no actual rationale” for a sharp drop in Bitcoin (BTC).
In this halving cycle, Bitcoin has yet to wow the market with all-time highs, which has caused some investors to lose faith.
On-chain indicators, on the other hand, remain substantially more bullish than spot price activity, and those investors still in the market believe that BTC/USD will rise significantly in the future.
This is due to a shortage of short-term holdings (STHs) on the market, according to Root. Even the most recent all-time highs of $69,000 in November 2021 had comparatively few speculative bets – a stark contrast to the all-time high in December 2017 during the last halving cycle.
Furthermore, rather than new STHs attempting to “buy the drop,” long-term holders (LTHs) hoping for a new price discovery are now the ones supporting the market.
The way forward
As the HODL Army grows, we’re able to produce new ATHs (up to 69k) with very few STHs on the market, Root explained.
“Because we didn’t reach prices beyond $100,000, as many predicted, many people still feel this will happen someday and will stay on to their coins,” he added.
As a result, due to the hesitation of LTHs to sell, Bitcoin’s realized price — the average price at which all coins last changed, which is now around $25,000 — appears to be an implausible aim.
While others did so recently, Root explained that it was because they purchased in at highs earlier in 2021 and wanted to cut their losses. Those who bought during Bitcoin’s first journey above $60,000, on the other hand, have chosen to hodl rather than sell.
Some folks who bought the run to the first 64k peak are exhausted, but plenty is still holding, Root tweeted. Older LTHs are largely holding up. There’s no compelling reason to believe the price will fall below the realized price.