According to popular crypto strategist Anthony Pompliano, it is expected that Bitcoin (BTC) will ignite a strong rally by the end of the year, noting that the current bearish price action is designed to shake traders out of the market.
As per the recent market trend, bitcoin prices is fluctuating for months now and the world is shaken by the drastic fall in the prices of bitcoin.
Though the current thrust might be jarring, this volatility isn’t new for the cryptocurrency market.
Looking at the balance on exchanges, Bitcoin’s market structure remains bullish as it continues to print higher highs and higher lows.
If you cautiously pay attention to this the balance on exchanges of bitcoin was at a peak at the beginning of 2020 and people were selling drastically whereas if it would have been on exchanges it would create less sell pressure and made the market illiquid.
Why Bitcoin Price is hovering Below $40K?
Pomp has pointed out that the sudden downturn is not only coming from the withdrawals from the exchanges but there is massive withdrawal from bitcoin ETFs around the world. As per the report of Bloomberg and UBS in April 2022, there have been major withdrawals from bitcoin ETFs as the capital gets moving when people are taking bitcoin off of exchanges and they’re taking bitcoin out of these ETFs now ultimately.
If you go ahead and take a look, the analysts over at block force capital had a great point; they stated that we’ve only seen this level of outflow from exchanges four previous times since the start of 2018.
In three out of 4 this is correlated with a sharp upward movement in price not too long ago but of course, this isn’t just about bitcoin, bitcoin operates within a macro environment.
Dylan leclair from Bitcoin magazine has shown us that the dollar currency index is approaching a multi-decade high in the u.s whereas the dollar continues to strengthen against foreign fiat currencies and tightening financial conditions.
Although the breaking point for historically over-leveraged economic systems is approaching by design and they can see pretty much since the start of 2021. The market has seen a massive upwards movement that doesn’t seem to have any end in sight now of course if you go back to bitcoin you can look at all sorts of different data points.
What does the data predict?
One of the significant things right now is the 20-day and 50-day moving averages they’ve actually turned over and they’re starting to decline the past two times that this has occurred.
Bitcoin corrects more than 50 percent now if you look at this chart here you can see that 20 and 50-day moving average turning negative.
Since 2015 there were 54 conversions however in 2018 it came down to 51. So the question arises whether we will get that same 50 plus percent correction again or not. History will be a good guide for the future but it isn’t necessarily a predictor.